SymbiQ Ledger: IBM expects the first cases of verified quantum advantage to be confirmed by the wider community by the end of 2026. Everything that happens to this claim: the criteria and any public change to them, check-ins, a proposed verdict, the final verdict and any reply. https://symbiq.dev/feeds/claim-ibm-verified-quantum-advantage-2026.xml 2026-12-31T00:00:00Z SymbiQ deskhttps://symbiq.dev/ tools/build_verdict_feeds.py urn:symbiq:ledger:ibm-verified-quantum-advantage-2026:due:2026-12-31:0 Verdict due: IBM expects the first cases of verified quantum advantage to be confirmed by the wider community by the end of 2026. 2026-12-31T00:00:00Z 2026-12-31T00:00:00Z The deadline for this claim is 2026-12-31. A verdict follows the rules on how a verdict gets written. The deadline for this claim is 2026-12-31. The claim, its criteria and the sources that will settle it are on its page. urn:symbiq:ledger:ibm-verified-quantum-advantage-2026:criteria:2026-10-19:0 Criteria clarified, in public: IBM expects the first cases of verified quantum advantage to be confirmed by the wider community by the end of 2026. 2026-10-19T00:00:00Z 2026-10-19T00:00:00Z The criteria used undefined terms (an independent party, a standing reproduction, an open dispute) and named a resolver source, the Quantum Advantage Tracker, with no link, and the Tracker is run partly by IBM. Definitions and the link were The criteria used undefined terms (an independent party, a standing reproduction, an open dispute) and named a resolver source, the Quantum Advantage Tracker, with no link, and the Tracker is run partly by IBM. Definitions and the link were added so two readers would score the same evidence the same way. Written after the 30 July 2026 IBM and Qedma announcement was logged, and without scoring it: it is not confirmation under the definitions either, since IBM and Qedma are the authors. Adds definitions only. Every sentence of the criteria as first written is kept, and takes precedence if a definition seems to conflict with it. No outcome that the original text decided clearly is changed. The earlier text is kept on the claim page. urn:symbiq:ledger:ibm-verified-quantum-advantage-2026:checkin:2026-09-23:0 Check-in (no signal): IBM expects the first cases of verified quantum advantage to be confirmed by the wider community by the end of 2026. 2026-09-23T00:00:00Z 2026-09-23T00:00:00Z On 30 July 2026 IBM and Qedma announced a quantum-advantage result on commercially available IBM hardware and released the circuits to the Quantum Advantage Tracker for classical benchmarking. That is the claimant's own announcement, so it On 30 July 2026 IBM and Qedma announced a quantum-advantage result on commercially available IBM hardware and released the circuits to the Quantum Advantage Tracker for classical benchmarking. That is the claimant's own announcement, so it is logged without a signal. The claim scores confirmation by the wider community, which had not been established when this entry was captured. urn:symbiq:ledger:ibm-verified-quantum-advantage-2026:tracked:2026-09-23:0 Now tracking: IBM expects the first cases of verified quantum advantage to be confirmed by the wider community by the end of 2026. 2026-09-23T00:00:00Z 2026-09-23T00:00:00Z Claim captured, with its resolution criteria and the sources that will settle it. Resolves by 2026-12-31. Resolves by 2026-12-31 (+30 day grace). Criteria: IBM's own test is the one scored: confirmation by the wider community, not an IBM announcement. Resolves VERIFIED if, by 31 Dec 2026 (plus grace), at least one quantum-advantage result run on IBM hardware has been confirmed by a party that is neither IBM nor an author of the result: a peer-reviewed paper or an independent group stating that the best classical methods it tried cannot match the result, with no published classical reproduction of that result standing at the resolution date. PARTIALLY_VERIFIED if a result is under open dispute at the deadline (classical work matches part of it but not all). NOT_VERIFIED if every claimed case has been matched classically, or no case has been confirmed outside IBM and its co-authors. Definitions added 2026-10-19, before the deadline, as a clarification (the sentences above stand and take precedence if a definition seems to conflict with them; see How a Ledger claim gets resolved): (1) “A party that is neither IBM nor an author of the result” means a peer-reviewed paper, or a public statement by a group, in which no author works for IBM and no author is an author of the result being confirmed. The Quantum Advantage Tracker, a register run by IBM with Algorithmiq, the Flatiron Institute and BlueQubit (described at https://www.ibm.com/quantum/blog/quantum-advantage-tracker), is a record of what has been submitted and of classical attempts. A Tracker entry is not confirmation by itself; it counts only through a paper or statement that meets this definition. (2) “Run on IBM hardware” means executed on a quantum processor that IBM operates or hosts, as stated in the result’s own paper. (3) A “classical reproduction” is a paper or preprint reporting a classical computation that obtains the same quantity the result reports, within the uncertainty the result reports. It is “standing” unless a later paper or preprint, dated on or before the resolution date, shows that it does not. (4) A result is “under open dispute” if a classical reproduction obtains some of the quantities the result reports but not all of them. (5) Only documents dated on or before the resolution date (31 Dec 2026 plus the 30-day grace period) count.