SymbiQ · The Ledger

Check-in (no signal): NVIDIA's Jensen Huang said truly useful quantum computers are 15 to 30 years away, with 20 years as the figure “a whole bunch of us would believe.”

Wed, 23 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000

On 20 March 2025, at Nvidia's Quantum Day, Huang walked the remark back: "This is the first event in history where a company CEO invites all of the guests to explain why he was wrong" (CNBC). He named no revised range, so there is no new dated claim to track. This one stands as stated and resolves on its own criteria.

Check-in (no signal): IBM expects the first cases of verified quantum advantage to be confirmed by the wider community by the end of 2026.

Wed, 23 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000

On 30 July 2026 IBM and Qedma announced a quantum-advantage result on commercially available IBM hardware and released the circuits to the Quantum Advantage Tracker for classical benchmarking. That is the claimant's own announcement, so it is logged without a signal. The claim scores confirmation by the wider community, which had not been established when this entry was captured.

Check-in (at risk): Pasqal's roadmap pointed to 10,000 qubits in 2026.

Wed, 23 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Pasqal's own 2025 roadmap (12 June 2025) says it is "moving towards 10,000 qubits by 2028". The claimant has moved the date two years. The 2026 claim is still scored as it was made.

Check-in (at risk): QuNorth said Magne, the logical-qubit machine it is buying from Microsoft and Atom Computing, would be ready for its first tasks by the new year 2026/27.

Wed, 23 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000

On 2 September 2026 The Quantum Insider reported the building complete and installation only beginning, and that "MAGNE is expected to be fully operational in the spring of 2027". Full operation is a later bar than first tasks, so this is a warning, not a verdict. The archived copy was taken on 23 September 2026.

Check-in (off track): Rigetti's own roadmap commits to a 100+ qubit chiplet system in 2025, 150+ qubits in 2026, and 1,000+ qubits in 2027.

Wed, 23 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000

The 2025 interim target, a 100+ qubit chiplet-based system, slipped. On 9 January 2026 Rigetti said it was revising its roadmap and that its 108-qubit Cepheus-1-108Q was "now expected to reach general availability around the end of the first quarter of 2026". Under this claim's criteria an interim slip still leaves PARTIALLY_VERIFIED open if the 2027 target is substantially met.

Now tracking: The EU's NIS Cooperation Group set the end of 2026 for every Member State to have started a national post-quantum transition.

Wed, 23 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Claim captured and its resolution criteria frozen on 2026-09-23. Resolves by 2026-12-31 (+90 day grace). Criteria: Resolves VERIFIED if, by 31 Dec 2026, all 27 Member States have initiated a national PQC transition strategy following the roadmap's First Steps, as reported by the NIS Cooperation Group, the European Commission or ENISA, or shown by each state's published plan. The grace period is 90 days because status reporting lags the deadline. PARTIALLY_VERIFIED if a majority but not all have. NOT_VERIFIED if fewer than half have, or if no status is published by the end of the grace period.

Now tracking: Fujitsu and RIKEN scheduled the launch of a 1,000-qubit superconducting quantum computer for 2026.

Wed, 23 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Claim captured and its resolution criteria frozen on 2026-09-23. Resolves by 2026-12-31 (+30 day grace). Criteria: Resolves VERIFIED if, by 31 Dec 2026 (plus grace), Fujitsu and/or RIKEN have launched a superconducting quantum computer with at least 1,000 physical qubits, announced as operational for research or customer use. PARTIALLY_VERIFIED if the launch falls in Japan's fiscal year 2026 but after the calendar year (January to March 2027), or if a 1,000-qubit chip is shown but not launched as a working system. NOT_VERIFIED otherwise.

Now tracking: IBM will deliver Kookaburra, its first modular processor designed to store and process encoded information, in 2026.

Wed, 23 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Claim captured and its resolution criteria frozen on 2026-09-23. Resolves by 2026-12-31 (+30 day grace). Criteria: Resolves VERIFIED if, by 31 Dec 2026 (plus grace), IBM has publicly demonstrated a Kookaburra processor module that both stores error-encoded information in its qLDPC memory and processes it with its attached logic unit, confirmed by an IBM announcement plus independent technical reporting or a paper. PARTIALLY_VERIFIED if Kookaburra is shown but demonstrates only the encoded memory or only the logic, not both working together. NOT_VERIFIED if no Kookaburra module has been shown by the deadline.

Now tracking: IBM expects the first cases of verified quantum advantage to be confirmed by the wider community by the end of 2026.

Wed, 23 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Claim captured and its resolution criteria frozen on 2026-09-23. Resolves by 2026-12-31 (+30 day grace). Criteria: IBM's own test is the one scored: confirmation by the wider community, not an IBM announcement. Resolves VERIFIED if, by 31 Dec 2026 (plus grace), at least one quantum-advantage result run on IBM hardware has been confirmed by a party that is neither IBM nor an author of the result: a peer-reviewed paper or an independent group stating that the best classical methods it tried cannot match the result, with no published classical reproduction of that result standing at the resolution date. PARTIALLY_VERIFIED if a result is under open dispute at the deadline (classical work matches part of it but not all). NOT_VERIFIED if every claimed case has been matched classically, or no case has been confirmed outside IBM and its co-authors.

Now tracking: IonQ's roadmap puts 10,000 physical qubits on a single chip in 2027.

Wed, 23 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Claim captured and its resolution criteria frozen on 2026-09-23. Resolves by 2027-12-31 (+30 day grace). Criteria: Resolves VERIFIED if, by 31 Dec 2027 (plus grace), IonQ has demonstrated a single chip with at least 10,000 physical qubits trapped, controlled and running gates, confirmed by IonQ plus independent reporting or a paper. PARTIALLY_VERIFIED if the chip has 10,000 trap sites but fewer operate as qubits, or if 10,000 qubits are reached across more than one chip. NOT_VERIFIED otherwise.

Now tracking: NIST expects to finalise a standard for HQC, its backup post-quantum key-exchange algorithm, in 2027.

Wed, 23 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Claim captured and its resolution criteria frozen on 2026-09-23. Resolves by 2027-12-31 (+30 day grace). Criteria: Resolves VERIFIED if, by 31 Dec 2027 (plus grace), NIST has published the final Federal Information Processing Standard for HQC (expected to be numbered FIPS 207). There is no partial outcome: a draft is not a standard. NOT_VERIFIED if only a draft exists by then.

Now tracking: Pasqal's roadmap pointed to 10,000 qubits in 2026.

Wed, 23 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Claim captured and its resolution criteria frozen on 2026-09-23. Resolves by 2026-12-31 (+30 day grace). Criteria: Scored as made on 12 March 2024. A later roadmap from the claimant that moves the date does not void the claim; it is logged as a check-in. Resolves VERIFIED if, by 31 Dec 2026 (plus grace), Pasqal operates or delivers a neutral-atom system with at least 10,000 physical qubits usable for computation. PARTIALLY_VERIFIED if at least 10,000 atoms are trapped and controlled in a demonstration but not in an operated or delivered system. NOT_VERIFIED otherwise.

Now tracking: PsiQuantum planned to have its utility-scale quantum computing site near Brisbane operational by the end of 2027.

Wed, 23 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Claim captured and its resolution criteria frozen on 2026-09-23. Resolves by 2027-12-31 (+30 day grace). Criteria: "Operational" is read as the quantum computer on the site running computations, not the building being finished. Resolves VERIFIED if, by 31 Dec 2027 (plus grace), PsiQuantum's system at the Brisbane site is running computations, confirmed by PsiQuantum or the Australian or Queensland government plus independent reporting. PARTIALLY_VERIFIED if the facility is complete and a smaller or partial system runs there. NOT_VERIFIED otherwise.

Now tracking: QuEra will introduce a quantum computer with 100 logical qubits and over 10,000 physical qubits in 2026.

Wed, 23 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Claim captured and its resolution criteria frozen on 2026-09-23. Resolves by 2026-12-31 (+30 day grace). Criteria: Resolves VERIFIED if, by 31 Dec 2026 (plus grace), QuEra has introduced a system (available to customers or publicly operated) with at least 100 error-corrected logical qubits and more than 10,000 physical qubits, confirmed by a QuEra announcement plus independent reporting or a paper. PARTIALLY_VERIFIED if only one of the two figures is met, or both are met only in a one-off research demonstration rather than an introduced system. NOT_VERIFIED otherwise.

Now tracking: QuNorth said Magne, the logical-qubit machine it is buying from Microsoft and Atom Computing, would be ready for its first tasks by the new year 2026/27.

Wed, 23 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Claim captured and its resolution criteria frozen on 2026-09-23. Resolves by 2026-12-31 (+30 day grace). Criteria: Resolves VERIFIED if, by 31 Dec 2026 (plus grace), Magne is installed in Copenhagen and has run its first user or research workloads, reported by QuNorth, Microsoft or Atom Computing plus independent reporting. Commissioning and acceptance testing are not first tasks. PARTIALLY_VERIFIED if the machine is installed and running acceptance tests but no workloads by the deadline. NOT_VERIFIED if it is not installed.

Resolved, Not verified: Atom Computing and Microsoft announced a commercial quantum machine with 24 entangled logical qubits, available for delivery in 2025.

Tue, 22 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Evidence gathered from the pre-registered resolver sources only. The criteria required a commercial customer to have RECEIVED AND OPERATED a system matching the 24-entangled-logical-qubit specification by 31 Dec 2025 plus the 30-day grace (30 Jan 2026), and said in advance that an order or a demo does not count. One commercial sale is identifiable in the named sources: QuNorth (Denmark, funded by EIFO and the Novo Nordisk Foundation), which contracted in 2025 for Magne — an Atom Computing / Microsoft system specified at roughly 50 logical qubits on about 1,225 physical neutral atoms, announced July 2025 with construction beginning that autumn. As of 2 September 2026, more than seven months after the grace period closed, The Quantum Insider reports that the building intended to house Magne has only just been completed, that installation is beginning, and that the system is expected to be fully operational in spring 2027. So no system was operating at a customer site inside the window — not at the announced 24-logical specification, and not at the differently-specified 50-logical one. That also rules out PARTIALLY_VERIFIED, which required a differently-specified system to have shipped in the window; none did. The January 2025 HPCwire roll-out report logged at intake describes an offering being made available, not a delivery — exactly the distinction the criteria fixed in advance, which is the whole reason it was fixed in advance. Nothing here is a judgement about intent. Hardware schedules slip, and the original announcement was explicit that delivery was a 2025 plan. What the Ledger records is that the dated, falsifiable version of the claim did not come true inside its own window.

Resolved, Not verified: IonQ targeted 99.999% (“five nines”) logical two-qubit gate fidelity by the end of 2025.

Tue, 22 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Evidence gathered from the pre-registered resolver sources only. The tracked target, as stated in IonQ's July 2024 roadmap announcement, was 99.999% (“five nines”) LOGICAL two-qubit gate fidelity using small-distance quantum error-correcting codes, by the end of 2025. Inside the window (31 Dec 2025 plus the 30-day grace, i.e. by 30 Jan 2026) IonQ did publish a two-qubit gate result: on 20–21 October 2025 it reported a gate error of 8.4(7)×10⁻⁵ — about 99.9916% fidelity — using Electronic Qubit Control without ground-state cooling, demonstrated on prototype systems in IonQ's R&D labs (arXiv:2510.17286; IonQ newsroom; The Quantum Insider, 21 Oct 2025). That is a PHYSICAL (native) gate fidelity. No error-correcting code is involved, and it is measured on prototype hardware rather than a deployed system. It is a real advance, it was reported as a world record on the physical axis, and it comfortably clears the same roadmap's separate >99.9% native target — but it is not the claim tracked here. No result at or above 99.999% logical two-qubit gate fidelity with small-distance QEC codes appears in any named resolver source inside the window. On the PARTIALLY_VERIFIED branch, recorded so the reading is auditable rather than assumed: the criteria offer that branch for “a result close to but short of five nines (e.g. four nines) … reported as the headline achievement instead.” The desk reads it as scoped to LOGICAL fidelity, because the sentence immediately before it forbids conflating the native figure with the logical one. A four-nines PHYSICAL result is a different measurement, not a near miss on the same one, so the branch does not fire. This is a statement about a dated claim and its deadline, not about the people who made it.

Check-in (off track): Atom Computing and Microsoft announced a commercial quantum machine with 24 entangled logical qubits, available for delivery in 2025.

Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Resolution pass run. The one identified commercial sale (QuNorth / Magne) had not been installed, let alone operated, by the 30 Jan 2026 grace deadline — as of 2 Sep 2026 the housing facility is only just finished and full operation is expected spring 2027. This supersedes the intake note's reading of the Jan 2025 HPCwire piece, which reported an offering, not a delivery. Moved to proposed with a drafted NOT_VERIFIED verdict; awaiting the second key.

Check-in (off track): IonQ targeted 99.999% (“five nines”) logical two-qubit gate fidelity by the end of 2025.

Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Resolution pass run. IonQ's in-window publication (20–21 Oct 2025) is a PHYSICAL two-qubit gate fidelity of ~99.9916% on prototype hardware, not the 99.999% LOGICAL figure with small-distance QEC codes that this claim tracks. Moved to proposed with a drafted NOT_VERIFIED verdict and full reasoning; awaiting the second key before it is published as resolved.

Check-in (on track): Atom Computing and Microsoft announced a commercial quantum machine with 24 entangled logical qubits, available for delivery in 2025.