How a Ledger claim gets resolved

20 claims, each with the documents that will settle it written down before the deadline. How the criteria may change, who adjudicates, where disputes are logged, and the letter we have not sent.

The short version

A verdict is decided from named documents against criteria fixed in advance. Those criteria can be clarified in public, by adding definitions, while a claim is still open and before its deadline, and each clarification keeps the old text on the page and in the integrity log. Anything that would change a stated condition is not a clarification: it removes the claim from scoring and says so. No adjudicator has been appointed, so the desk decides alone, and every verdict page says that.

The documents that settle each claim

Each claim’s criteria say what VERIFIED, PARTIALLY_VERIFIED and NOT_VERIFIED require, and name the sources the verdict will be written from. A source is a link to a document, so anyone can open and archive it. Where a source is a class of documents rather than one link, a written reason is on file (resolver-reviewed.json). A build check fails if a claim’s criteria lack an outcome or name a source that is neither a link nor reviewed.

ClaimScored onDocuments that settle itCriteria
Atom Computing and Microsoft announced a commercial quantum machine with 24 entangled logical qubits, available for delivery in 2025.31 December 2025atom-computing.com/news
azure.microsoft.com/en-us/blog/quantum
hpcwire.com
thequantuminsider.com
As first written
IonQ targeted 99.999% (“five nines”) logical two-qubit gate fidelity by the end of 2025.31 December 2025ionq.com/news
investors.ionq.com
thequantuminsider.com
arXiv preprints from IonQ's technical team, 2025
As first written
D-Wave says its Advantage2 annealing quantum computer demonstrated quantum computational supremacy on a real-world magnetic-materials simulation problem, beating classical supercomputers.31 December 2026science.org/doi/10.1126/science.ado6285
arxiv.org/abs/2503.05693
arxiv.org/abs/2503.08247
thequantuminsider.com
Amended 19 October 2026
The EU's NIS Cooperation Group set the end of 2026 for every Member State to have started a national post-quantum transition.31 December 2026digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/policies/nis...
enisa.europa.eu
National cybersecurity agencies' PQC roadmaps (for example ANSSI, BSI, NCSC-NL)
As first written
Fujitsu and RIKEN scheduled the launch of a 1,000-qubit superconducting quantum computer for 2026.31 December 2026riken.jp/en/news_pubs/news
global.fujitsu/en-global/pr
thequantuminsider.com
As first written
IBM will deliver Kookaburra, its first modular processor designed to store and process encoded information, in 2026.31 December 2026newsroom.ibm.com
ibm.com/quantum/blog
arxiv.org/list/quant-ph/recent
As first written
IBM expects the first cases of verified quantum advantage to be confirmed by the wider community by the end of 2026.31 December 2026newsroom.ibm.com
arxiv.org/list/quant-ph/recent
ibm.com/quantum/blog/quantum-advantage-tracker
Amended 19 October 2026
Pasqal's roadmap pointed to 10,000 qubits in 2026.31 December 2026pasqal.com/newsroom
arxiv.org/list/quant-ph/recent
thequantuminsider.com
As first written
QuEra will introduce a quantum computer with 100 logical qubits and over 10,000 physical qubits in 2026.31 December 2026quera.com/press-releases
arxiv.org/list/quant-ph/recent
thequantuminsider.com
As first written
QuNorth said Magne, the logical-qubit machine it is buying from Microsoft and Atom Computing, would be ready for its first tasks by the new year 2026/27.31 December 2026qunorth.com/news
novonordiskfonden.dk/en/news
thequantuminsider.com
Amended 19 October 2026
IonQ's roadmap puts 10,000 physical qubits on a single chip in 2027.31 December 2027investors.ionq.com/news
ionq.com/blog
arxiv.org/list/quant-ph/recent
As first written
NIST expects to finalise a standard for HQC, its backup post-quantum key-exchange algorithm, in 2027.31 December 2027csrc.nist.gov/publications/fips
nist.gov/news-events/news
csrc.nist.gov/projects/post-quantum-cryptogra...
As first written
PsiQuantum planned to have its utility-scale quantum computing site near Brisbane operational by the end of 2027.31 December 2027psiquantum.com/news
industry.gov.au
thequantuminsider.com
As first written
Rigetti's own roadmap commits to a 100+ qubit chiplet system in 2025, 150+ qubits in 2026, and 1,000+ qubits in 2027.31 December 2027rigetti.com/news
investors.rigetti.com
thequantuminsider.com
quantumcomputingreport.com
As first written
Google has set 2029 as its internal deadline to complete post-quantum cryptography migration across its infrastructure.31 December 2029blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/safe...
security.googleblog.com
cloud.google.com/security/resources/post-quan...
As first written
IBM will deliver a large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer (“Starling”) by 2029, running 100 million quantum operations on 200 logical qubits.31 December 2029ibm.com/quantum/roadmap
research.ibm.com/blog
thequantuminsider.com
As first written
Executive Order 14412 requires U.S. federal high-value assets to migrate to post-quantum key establishment by 31 December 2030, and to post-quantum digital signatures by 31 December 2031.31 December 2030whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions
omb.gov
cisa.gov/post-quantum-cryptography
As first written
Quantinuum will deliver universal, fully fault-tolerant quantum computing (system “Apollo”) by 2030.31 December 2030quantinuum.com/press-releases
quantinuum.com/blog
thequantuminsider.com
As first written
Microsoft says its Majorana 1 / Topological Core approach puts industrial-scale, meaningful quantum computing “years, not decades” away.19 February 2035azure.microsoft.com/en-us/blog/quantum
news.microsoft.com/source/topics/innovation
thequantuminsider.com
As first written
NVIDIA's Jensen Huang said truly useful quantum computers are 15 to 30 years away, with 20 years as the figure “a whole bunch of us would believe.”6 January 2040thequantuminsider.com
nature.com
science.org
As first written

How criteria may change

Two kinds of change are allowed, both only while a claim is open and before its deadline:

Each one is entered in the integrity log as an amendment with the old and new hashes and the reason, and the earlier text is kept on the claim page under “How the criteria changed”. A build check recomputes the hash of the kept text and fails if it does not match what the log recorded. Anything that changes a stated condition, such as an outcome, a threshold or a deadline, is moving the goalposts. The Ledger’s rule is that this removes the claim from scoring and leaves a public note, and a change of that kind is not made here.

Amendments so far: 3.

These were written by the editor, one person, and each states what the editor knew when it was written. A clarification written after evidence exists can still, without anyone meaning it, favour one reading, so the reason for each clarification says what had already been logged when it was written. You can see on the claim page exactly what was added.

Who adjudicates

Every claim has an adjudicator field. It is empty (null) when nobody has been appointed, and when it is filled it must carry a name, a role, an appointment date and declared conflicts. 0 of 20 claims have an adjudicator. Until one is appointed, the editor decides alone, and each claim page says so. Named reviewers will appear on the reviewers page when there are real ones; none is made up here.

Conflict log

Disputes about a claim’s criteria or evidence, objections from a claimant, and conflicts of interest are logged in ledger-conflicts.json, opened when raised and closed with an outcome. People are named by role only.

None yet. The log began on 19 October 2026. Nobody has raised a dispute, an objection or a conflict of interest, as far as the desk has been told.

Evidence snapshots: how a verdict is reproduced

Every source a verdict cites is kept three ways. An independent archive copy (the Wayback Machine), whose date is shown next to the link on the claim page and said plainly when it was taken after the verdict. Our own fetch, with the HTTP result and a SHA-256 of the exact bytes. And a record, in data/evidence/, of who drafted the verdict and who reviewed it. The bundle’s hash is chained in the integrity log, so it cannot be swapped quietly. The fetched pages themselves are kept in the private desk repository, not published here, so this site holds hashes and archive links and not other people’s pages.

VerdictPublishedSourcesFetched and hashedArchive copy taken after the verdictSnapshot taken forMethod on record
Atom Computing and Microsoft announced a commercial quantum machine with 24 entangled logical qubits, available for delivery in 2025.22 September 202643 of 41retroactivedrafted by agent:claude-opus-5; reviewed by no one
IonQ targeted 99.999% (“five nines”) logical two-qubit gate fidelity by the end of 2025.22 September 202644 of 40retroactivedrafted by agent:claude-opus-5; reviewed by no one

What this does not give you. The verdicts above were published on 22 September 2026, and our own snapshots were taken later, on 19 October 2026, so they are labelled retroactive: they show what the sources say now, not what the drafter saw, and 1 of the 8 archive copies were taken after the verdict. 1 source(s) refused or failed our fetch; each failure is recorded in the bundle, not hidden. The prompt and transcript of the drafting sessions were not kept, so the drafting cannot be replayed; what can be repeated is the check of each verdict against its sources. From 19 October 2026 a verdict cannot be published without a snapshot taken on or before the day it is published: a build check fails otherwise.

Telling the claimant

The Ledger’s standing rule is that any claimant can answer a verdict at any time. This is the letter the desk would send before a claim’s deadline if it chose to. It is a template. Nothing has been sent to anyone: the date a claimant was told is recorded on a claim page only when it is set, and it is set on 0 of 20 claims.

Subject: SymbiQ Ledger: a claim of yours is scored on {resolves_by}

To the {claimant} press or investor-relations team,

On {source_date}, {claimant} said:

    "{verbatim}"

SymbiQ (https://symbiq.dev) is an independent, unfunded teaching site. Its Ledger tracks dated, public claims and scores each one on its deadline. Yours is here:

    {claim_url}

It is scored on {resolves_by}, with a {grace_days}-day grace period, against criteria written down on {criteria_frozen_at}. They are on that page, with the documents we will use to settle it. {amendment_note}

What happens next:
  1. After the deadline we write a verdict from those documents only, and publish it with an archived copy of every source it cites.
  2. You may send us, at any time, a document that bears on the criteria, or a reply. A reply is published in full beside the verdict. If it shows the verdict is wrong, the verdict changes and the change is logged in public.
  3. Nobody pays for a claim to be tracked or for the wording of a verdict, and we do not show a verdict to a claimant before it is published.

Reply to the address on https://symbiq.dev/about, or use the correction form at https://symbiq.dev/corrections#report.

The desk, SymbiQ