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D-Wave says its Advantage2 annealing quantum computer demonstrated quantum computational supremacy on a real-world magnetic-materials simulation problem, beating classical supercomputers.

D-Wave Quantum Inc. said this on 2025-03-12. The Ledger scores it on 2026-12-31, against criteria fixed on 2026-08-27.

Tracking

Archived copy: https://web.archive.org/web/20260812130012/https://www.dwavequantum.com/company/newsroom/press-release/beyond-classical-d-wave-first-to-demonstrate-quantum-supremacy-on-useful-real-world-problem/

How it is scored

This is a claim about a result already published (Science, DOI 10.1126/science.ado6285, “Beyond-Classical Computation in Quantum Simulation”), not a future promise -- so what is being tracked is not whether it happens, but whether it HOLDS UP against classical rebuttals, which is exactly the kind of claim a credibility tracker exists for. Resolves VERIFIED if no classical algorithm has, by the resolution date, matched D-Wave's reported accuracy/runtime on the same problem instances at the same or larger scale. NOT_VERIFIED if a peer-reviewed classical method has matched or beaten it at comparable scale. PARTIALLY_VERIFIED if classical methods match it at smaller scales tested so far (as the two rebuttals below currently claim) but have not yet been shown to scale to D-Wave's largest reported instances.

Sources that will settle it: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.ado6285, arXiv:2503.05693 (Flatiron Institute, Tindall, Mello, Fishman et al.), arXiv preprint, Mauron & Carleo, EPFL, https://thequantuminsider.com.

Check-ins

• 2025-03-07: at risk (source)
• 2025-03-12: at risk (source)

Open this claim in the Ledger, with every other claim and the scorecards. How the Ledger judges a claim.