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IBM expects the first cases of verified quantum advantage to be confirmed by the wider community by the end of 2026.

IBM said this on 2025-11-12. The Ledger scores it on 2026-12-31, against criteria fixed on 2026-09-23.

Tracking

Archived copy: https://web.archive.org/web/20251112125211/https://newsroom.ibm.com/2025-11-12-ibm-delivers-new-quantum-processors,-software,-and-algorithm-breakthroughs-on-path-to-advantage-and-fault-tolerance

How it is scored

IBM's own test is the one scored: confirmation by the wider community, not an IBM announcement. Resolves VERIFIED if, by 31 Dec 2026 (plus grace), at least one quantum-advantage result run on IBM hardware has been confirmed by a party that is neither IBM nor an author of the result: a peer-reviewed paper or an independent group stating that the best classical methods it tried cannot match the result, with no published classical reproduction of that result standing at the resolution date. PARTIALLY_VERIFIED if a result is under open dispute at the deadline (classical work matches part of it but not all). NOT_VERIFIED if every claimed case has been matched classically, or no case has been confirmed outside IBM and its co-authors.

Sources that will settle it: https://newsroom.ibm.com, https://arxiv.org/list/quant-ph/recent, The Quantum Advantage Tracker (IBM with Algorithmiq, the Flatiron Institute and BlueQubit).

Check-ins

• 2026-09-23: no signal (source)

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